Ideas

Judgment is becoming infrastructure.

When analysis becomes abundant, advantage moves toward framing: deciding which question deserves to be asked, which evidence matters, what the system has failed to see and who remains accountable for the final judgment.

Four domains

  • Reputation intelligence

    Reputation is increasingly constructed before a human evaluates it. Search systems, databases, classifiers, risk models and machine-generated summaries now influence what organisations are noticed, how they are interpreted and which risks reach decision-makers.

  • Frontier intelligence

    AI and software reduce the cost of creating capability. They also make it more important to identify what cannot be easily copied: proprietary science, evidence, intellectual property, infrastructure, trusted workflows and strategic distribution.

  • Capital intelligence

    Capital allocation is increasingly mediated by data systems and machine judgment. The question is not whether machines should participate in investment decisions — they already do. It is whether institutions understand how those judgments were constructed.

  • Planetary intelligence

    Water, energy, critical minerals, climate resilience and industrial infrastructure force capital to confront the physical world. They demand longer time horizons, more complex stakeholder systems and a clearer understanding of the connection between technological possibility and institutional capacity.

The book

Algorithmic Roulette

The decision begins before the meeting. How machines are changing what institutions see, trust and fund — and what boards and investors must do to preserve human judgment.

Explore the book →

The Venturer

Notes from the frontier.

Where I develop emerging ideas before they become frameworks, board discussions or longer-form work — frontier technology, capital allocation, governance, structural defensibility and the institutions required to build durable markets.

Read The Venturer →

Programmes

Ideas for rooms where decisions matter.

Selected keynotes, closed-door board sessions and institutional roundtables arising from Algorithmic Roulette and the wider work on frontier technology and institutional judgment.

Institutional programmes →

An idea becomes useful when it improves a decision.

The objective is not commentary for its own sake. The strongest work moves between research, investment judgment, writing, boardrooms and institutional conversations — each testing the others.